IHSAA Girls Basketball Tournament action is scheduled to get underway tomorrow, and based upon percentages, it appears there are some rock-solid favorites in John Harrell's sectional picks.
It looks like 4A is going to be the most competitive group this year -- great for fans -- with only two sectionals showing secondary opponents under a 15 percent probability of winning their sectionals. The 3A sectional lineup looks to have the path of least resistance for the favorites, with six sectionals showing high probability winners. In 2A, Fort Wayne Luers holds the highest probability of winning its sectional at 96.9% and secondary opponent Woodland at 2.1%, while No. 1 Heritage Christian has the second best probability of winning its sectional at 96.9% compared to secondary opponent Triton Central at 2.9%.
However, as we all know, there are a number of factors other than stats that enter into mix -- injuries, rivalries, the nature of teenage minds and attitudes. We can just about guarantee that although Harrell's picks make a tremendous amount of sense, not all of them will make it out. That's why we play and go to the games. Gotta love the underdogs!
Given percentile chances based upon the latest Sagarin Ratings, sectional draw and sectional site, the following teams have secondary picks in their sectional that show less than a 15 percent chance of making it out:
No. 11 Perry Meridian, 64.0% - Center Grove, 14.7%
No. 1 Ben Davis, 86.2% - Decatur Central, 10.2%
No. 11 Plymouth, 78.5% - Mishawaka Marian, 9.3%
No. 1 Benton Central, 74.8% - Western, 8.0%
Yorktown, 60.5% - Delta, 14.5%
No. 6 Crawfordsville, 66.0% - Western Boone, 9.7%
No. 10 Owen Valley, 82.3% - Edgewood, 14.3%
No. 3 Vincennes Lincoln, 77.8% - Washington, 11.4%
No. 3 Garrett, 75.8% - Prairie Heights, 11.0%
No. 8 Fort Wayne Luers, 96.9% - Woodland, 2.1%
No. 1 Heritage Christian, 95.6% - Triton Central, 2.9%
No. 7 Fort Wayne Canterbury, 89.8% - Fort Wayne Blackhawk, 4.9%
No. 11 Southern Wells, 88.1% - Cowan, 7.2%
No. 4 Turkey Run, 87.8% - Rockville, 8.1%
No. 6 University, 78.0% - Indianapolis Lutheran, 12.3%
RRR WINNER'S CUP FINISHES IN 2A
A three-point loss at home for 3A Mitchell on Saturday has sealed the fate of the inaugural RRR Winner's Cup. This season's cup will eventually land in the lap of the 2009 2A State Champion, thanks to a 72-69 win for the 2A No. 9 Austin Eagles (17-5) over Mitchell. Austin will face the winner between Providence (6-13) and Paoli (8-12) at Sectional 47 at Austin on Friday. Austin is predicted to win the sectional, according to John Harrell.
Other news of interest: